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This blog is the second in our three-part Competitive Strategy Series. This series is meant to help you understand the three key parts of your competitive strategy. You can compare the three pillars to three legs of a stool. If one leg is shorter than the rest, or worse yet, if you are missing a leg completely, your stool will fall right over.

The same goes for the competitive intelligence function in your organization. If you aren’t executing all three pillars, your overall strategy will lack stability and may ultimately crumble.

Read about all three pillars in our blog series, The 3 Pillars of a Comprehensive Competitive Strategy:

  1. The Framework
  2. Prioritizing Information and Research (this article)
  3. Monitoring & Communication 

What is Prioritizing Information and Research?

As we shared in the first article of this series, the biggest question when building a competitive intelligence strategy is always, “what do I focus on first?".  Naturally, as a CI practitioner, researcher, or strategist being able to confidently prioritize where to focus your resources and “place your bets” are some of the most critical business decisions.

Anticipating when, how fast, and why trends, customer needs, and markets will grow are fundamental to success.  

What if you could precisely predict the disruptions and market forces that matter most to your business using a proven research approach? Now you can with Prediction Market research.

Why Consider Prediction Markets?

Prediction market research is an anticipatory research method used to predict future outcomes rather than summarize opinion. Using a gamified platform, participants are asked to place bets using digital (token) currency on topics where they have knowledge and then explain why they bet the way they did.

Prediction Markets are an alternative to traditional primary research methods as they solve for a host of common survey and focus group blind-spots including:

  • Removing Bias: People are notoriously terrible at predicting their own behavior. In a prediction market, people are not asked to respond with their “opinion”, but instead to make a “judgment” on how a target audience will behave.  By minimizing the effect of rational response bias, personal prejudices are better controlled, and emotions are taken out of the equation which results in greater accuracy.
  • Self-Selection: Participants are asked only to answer questions where they have knowledge to make a judgment.
  • Skin in the Game: Participants invest tokens indicating their level of confidence and are rewarded for prediction accuracy.
  • Behavioral Science: The validated behavior-based algorithm and technology incorporates the best of System 1 (emotional) and System 2 (logical) thinking.
  • Highly Contextual: Prediction market questions include background information and context so participants are better able to predict what will happen.
  • Quali/Quant: Prediction markets offer a unique hybrid approach that includes qualitative and quantitative data collection.
  • Highly Accurate: Solid record of 90% accuracy of in-market behavior. 

How Prediction Market Research Works

In proper  prediction market research, questions are grounded in fact-based context and worded for a future state. Each question consists of 4 easy steps:

  1. Participants self-select topics where they have sufficient knowledge to make a judgment and place a bet.
  2. Confidence in their bet is measured by the number of tokens allocated.
  3. Bets are justified with qualitative rationale.
  4. Our proprietary HUUNU algorithm calculates the collective judgement of participants in real-time

Applications of HUUNU Prediction Markets in Competitive Intelligence

By leveraging a validated prediction algorithm, combined with a gamified user interface, HUUNU takes advantage of the collective judgment or "wisdom" of a target audience, to predict future trends, events, and market preferences.

Our HUUNU Prediction Market Platform is designed to provide an engaging way to tap into the knowledge of an audience to predict future trends and market forces to inform priorities and investment including:

  • Trend Timing: When will the trend reach critical mass?
  • Trends & Jobs: What can you expect from out-year needs, demand, and penetration?
  • Brand Growth: Project emerging or mature growth trajectories.
  • Consumer Behavior: Predict the magnitude and timing of future behavior.
  • Why: Understand more about the reasons why all of the above will happen.

The answers to these questions can help inform your competitive strategy so you can mitigate threats and capitalize on opportunities before your competitors. 

The benefits of using the HUUNU Platform to execute Prediction Market research include:

  • Breakthrough Speed: Research results in days not weeks or months 
  • Fact-based Context: HUUNU arms participants with today’s fact-based context and topical knowledge, so they can make informed collective predictions of where the future is headed and why
  • Global & Mobile: Participants can be involved from anywhere, on any device
  • Sizing & Growth Metrics: Get detailed answers about how large a market will grow and which segments of the population will lead growth 
  • 90% Validated Accuracy: Multi-level validation across research methods and in-market performance.  

Are you looking for help executing market research?

At Consensus Point + Cipher, we specialize in prediction market research.  When we partner with clients, our main role is to understand our clients’ business decisions, design and implement a successful research strategy to address those needs and then interpret the results and offer consultative support.

Your team will benefit greatly from the outside point-of-view, subject matter expertise, access to best practices, objectivity, new ideas, speed, and results that come along with a team that excels in running prediction market research.