5 Minute Read

It’s never been more important for organizations to make smarter, faster decisions. The rapid pace of change in many industries means that in order to be successful, organizations have to not only anticipate emerging trends, but have methods to help them size and prioritize them to capitalize on new opportunities, and react quickly to new information and competitors. 

Traditional predictive analytics and trend-casting approaches are helpful, but they have a blind spot as they typically only model current and historic data and accuracy drops off significantly beyond a couple of years.  Prediction Market Research technology and analytics like Hunuu Futures help fill this void. 

When applied appropriately, prediction markets can now be leveraged to accurately size future trends, customer needs, adoption rates of new technologies, and disruptive business models.

This new type of predictive data helps organizations determine where to best allocate resources, make decisions with a higher degree of confidence, and capitalize on the opportunities of tomorrow. 

Meet HUUNU Futures - A New Type of Prediction Market

We built and validated HUUNU Futures specifically to plug a gap in the marketplace that we’ve seen time and time again. Many predictive research services and consultancies make use of traditional research tools that are not well suited to predicting the future.

Often, the product, service, or disruptive innovation is so new that research participants lack the frame of reference to understand the role this new technology could play in their lives.  Without information and context, it is impossible for stakeholders, customers, or research participants to provide credible opinions or preference predictions for disruptive product and service ideas or emerging business models. 

Prediction market research can produces quantifiable predictions on future trends, customer needs, and technology or service ideas.

HUUNU Futures delivers a fully customizable prediction market platform that produces quantifiable predictions on future trends, customer needs, and technology or service ideas.

Organizations work extensively with our team to design a research market built around several hypotheses of what the future might look like, and we determine not only which hypothesized future state is most likely to happen, but the cadence at which these events will take place.  Perhaps most importantly, we simultaneously capture the reasons WHY in the words of your customer or stakeholders. 

Our clients have found that the depth and specificity of the qualitative rationale behind participants’ betting behavior is a critical component to support the quantitative data and decision-making. 

Depth and specificity of the qualitative rationale behind participants’ betting behavior is a critical component to support the quantitative data and decision-making.

In practical terms, this means for early stage (Front-end) innovation, HUUNU Futures can uniquely help predict trend velocity and magnitude, growth of emerging products or brands, and the rate at which consumers will embrace Jobs-to-be-Done or ideas that solve important problems.

In this type of use case, again the qualitative rationale behind the participants' investments helps marketing and R&D teams anticipate barriers they will most likely need to overcome on the product diffusion curve. as they go to market.

How HUUNU Futures Works

Despite the myth that “crowd wisdom,” requires a gen pop audience, HUUNU Futures typically recruits custom and knowledgeable audiences to bet virtual currency on how a particular group will react to ideas and events.

Futures’ projects can incorporate a wide variety of participants: customers, employees, partners, policy makers, and more. The diverse yet informed views captured in the gamified UX enable HUUNU Futures prediction algorithm to summarize both a holistic or aggregate result for new trends and ideas as well as how quickly you can expect different groups (market segments) to adopt a new trend or idea.

Respondents are significantly better at predicting the behavior of others or a future outcome than predicting their own behavior.

Over several years and thousands of predictions, our research has consistently shown that respondents are significantly better at predicting the behavior of others or a future outcome than predicting their own behavior, particularly the further out in time you get from the actual behavior or outcome you want to measure.

For instance, surveys can be very accurate when asking someone what toothpaste they used this morning or they will use tomorrow, but what restaurant will they go to next week, or how often they will look at their i-phone is another challenge altogether.  

We have also found that asking questions in a projective context about choices a group or type of consumer will make in the future significantly reduces rational response bias. It is actually quite amazing to see how much more truthful participants can be in their qualitative feedback when they are defending their bet and not talking about themselves.

HUUNU Futures’ is producing an 85+% accuracy rate on future predictions.

The combination of projective context, participants betting virtual currency, and the HUUNU gamified UI and algorithm has dramatically improved the accuracy of our predictions over traditional methods, particularly with disruptive ideas and the further you go out in time.

In-market and secondary validation research has continuously shown that HUUNU Futures’ is producing an 85+% accuracy rate on future predictions.

An Example Use Case: Autonomous Vehicles & the Insurance Industry

The beauty of a tool like HUUNU Futures is that it’s truly customizable and can be applied successfully in a wide variety of industries. One example: autonomous vehicles and the insurance industry

It’s becoming increasingly clear that autonomous vehicles will play a role in the future of transportation, but the exact details remain unclear. For insurance companies, the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will have a major impact: how can you write insurance policies for cars that aren’t operated by a human? 

Clearly, insurance companies that better understand how autonomous vehicles will develop over the next few years, and the rate at which the market will adopt them, are better positioned to manage the oncoming wave of disruption. This type of scenario is the perfect use case for HUUNU Futures.

To start, insurance companies should work with strategists (internal or external) to come up with a list of hypotheses about what the future could look like. These hypotheses will be tested with an audience composed of those in the know: internal stakeholders, external decision makers, and policy makers in various geographies. An additional audience of potential customers will also be established to predict adoption rates.

After educating research participants on the current state of the market and autonomous vehicle technology, participants will be asked to predict what they believe will happen by betting virtual currency and justifying the reasons behind their decisions. 

HUUNU Futures creates questions and crafts potential responses that best explore the underlying hypotheses. On the back end, HUUNU Futures’ sophisticated algorithms translate all of this quantitative and qualitative data into measurable predictions of the future. Outputs may include the pace of adoption, which cities and states are likely to embrace autonomous technology first, and the kind of insurance that customers would prefer for an autonomous vehicle.

Armed with these insights, it becomes significantly easier for insurance companies to conceptualize and execute their strategies. By taking command of a trend very early on, insurance companies can time their product development, market entry, and launch strategies to align perfectly with the dawn of fully autonomous vehicles. 

HUUNU Futures & Knowledge360Ⓡ: The Optimal Solution

HUUNU Futures gives organizations much more clarity when it comes to the future of their industry. However, predicting the future is impossible without a firm grasp on the current state of the market. 

Knowledge360Ⓡ is an intelligence hub that provides a real-time view of competitors, the market, and the wider environment. By closely tracking competitor and market activity, organizations can understand new trends early, and better position themselves to respond to them. The information contained in Knowledge360 is invaluable in enabling organizations to generate hypotheses that can be tested in HUUNU Futures. 

Need more help? Cipher’s competitive intelligence consultants can help upskill your competitive intelligence function and arm your organization with the tools it needs to effectively track your market and take steps towards predicting future developments. 

Get Started with HUUNU Futures Today

If you’re searching for game-changing strategic developments for your organization to capitalize on, use HUUNU Futures to help discover them. Our technology and methodology has proven to be accurate 90% of the time, and the further out you’re planning, the greater the accuracy. 

To determine if HUUNU Futures is the right fit for your organization, schedule a demo call with one of our consultants today.